SONI have announced their new strategy for 2025 – 2031.
The strategy is structured around four strategic ambitions (Advise, Plan, Deliver and Operate). SONI have identified their desire to place themselves as a key strategic adviser across the energy space, to engage with the public, to deliver the best outcomes for all and to continue operating a secure and reliable system. All of these are commendable goals which are arguably the core remit of the TSO in Northern Ireland.
But what does this mean for the energy transition in Northern Ireland?
Is this strategy a step change in approach or more of the same? The strategy may at first seem lacking in detail, but, digging deeper and looking at the wider picture of what is happening in Northern Ireland, these are interesting times.
What’s that coming over the hill, is it an 80% renewable target?!
As with any strategy, there is a rehashing of old truths. SONI will continue to deliver a robust and secure transmission system in Northern Ireland, which is their core remit. The way SONI engage with the public and advise stakeholders may change, but these public relations items aren’t the drivers of changes in technical approaches. Tangible commitments are often hard to come by in strategic documents but one key target that SONI has included in the strategy is the delivery of 80% RES-E (electricity from renewable generation) by 2030.
For many years there has been ambiguity surrounding RES-E targets in Northern Ireland.
In 2022, the Climate Change Act signalled an 80% target by 2030. SONI have, as expected, aligned with this target. In Ireland the 80% target has begun to look less and less feasible. But can the target be achieved in Northern Ireland? What might give Northern Ireland a chance to achieve this goal where Ireland appears to have none. And what are the levers and blockers? This overarching aim of 80% RES-E is in effect the essence of everything SONI is aiming for in the energy transition to 2030.
The Levers
SONI are working to increase renewable penetration and reduce dispatch down in Northern Ireland. Their comprehensive Dispatch Down Action Plan has identified the key steps to reducing levels of renewable dispatch down and increasing the proportion of electricity provided by renewable energy.
- Reduction in the need for conventional units. SONI are actively pushing down the MWs coming from conventional generators in Northern Ireland by aiming to reduce requirements on minimum conventional generation. Part of the picture here is the LCIS (Low Carbon Inertia Services) which will help remove the need for conventional generation on the system.
- Increase in energy storage. In the short to medium term, this is a critical lever that SONI can support. With energy storage, in particular LDES (Long Duration Energy Storage), SONI can reduce the need for dispatch down on the system and really push up renewable generation levels.
Electricity demand presents a very interesting aspect to the 80% RES-E target. Demand in Northern Ireland has been decreasing in recent years in stark contrast to the explosion in demand levels in Ireland, primarily driven by Data Centres. While a decrease in demand sounds alarm bells for renewable developers, this decrease may in fact help with the 80% RES-E target.
If there is a lower demand, then less renewable generation needs to be built to reach 80% RES-E. Demand levels are an issue that Ireland is struggling to come to grips with due to the substantial increase in data centre demand which necessitates greater and greater levels of renewable generation to be installed to meet RES-E targets.
In Northern Ireland, the low demand level may in fact work as a positive in reaching RES-E targets. The low demand level in Northern Ireland presents a chance to drive up RES-E levels. A system demand below 500 MW at night is a regular occurrence in Northern Ireland. Even without a second North South Interconnector, if 450 MW of renewables can be exported to Ireland, up to 500 MW can be exported to Scotland via Moyle and there’s only 500 MW of local demand, this presents a real opportunity to go well above 100% of demand from renewable sources at certain times.
While these levers can progress SONI towards the 80% RES-E target, there is one key blocker standing in the way.
The Blocker a.k.a. the lack of a second North South Interconnector
The second North South Interconnector has been delayed by another 3 years to 2031 as per the latest Network Delivery Portfolio publication. The lack of a second North South Interconnector is the single biggest blocker to increased renewable generation levels in Northern Ireland and it is now accepted it will not be in place by 2030.
In 2024, constraints, primarily driven by the limitation on power transfers on the current North South Interconnector, resulted in an annual average wind constraint of 25% in Northern Ireland, with a monthly peak of 43% for August. These are stark figures but are no surprise to those who have been closely following Moyle Interconnector flows over the past few years. As Moyle imports have increased there has been a growing level of constraint due to excess renewable generation in Northern Ireland which cannot all be transported out of the region. Low levels of local demand combined with Interconnector imports have led to eye watering constraint levels.
This is a huge concern for renewable developers in the region and presents a real challenge to confidence and future investment in the Northern Irish renewables sector. A fundamental question must be asked, if renewables which have effectively zero marginal cost are being turned off to facilitate imports, is this really the least cost approach for Northern Irish electricity consumers, and what can be done from a market perspective to address this issue.
However, when it come to the 80% RES-E target, Interconnector imports are not as impactful as they may first seem. Due to emissions accounting practices, emissions are accounted for in the region they are produced, therefore, imports on an interconnector don’t count towards emissions in Northern Ireland and are effectively zero emissions power from a RES-E perspective. Despite this accounting quirk, I think we can all agree that achieving high RES-E levels on this kind of technicality where imports are considered zero emissions is not an ideal situation.
At TNEI, we’ll be closely monitoring RES-E levels, with imports from Scotland discounted from the calculation to get what we feel is a more representative picture.
The Bottom Line
Renewable generation is at a critical crossroads in Northern Ireland. Decisive action is needed to minimise constraints on renewable generation if optimism and investment in the sector is to be maintained. In the short term, SONI need to aggressively pursue the levers available to them and bring forward LDES and LCIS as quickly as possible. In the longer term, the second North South Interconnector is critical and any potential future Interconnection between Northern Ireland and Scotland, such as the proposed LirIC Interconnector, requires careful examination to ensure the constraint issues seen in recent years aren’t compounded by even higher imports from Scotland.
How can TNEI help?
TNEI has extensive experience of Power System Analysis in Northern Ireland.
- We supported SONI with the modelling of the Shaping our Electricity Future Programme and have an intimate understanding of the future needs of the Power System.
- We have worked with onshore and offshore renewable developers across Northern Ireland on optimum grid opportunity analysis, grid constraint analysis and portfolio planning.
- We have worked with LEUs focused on identifying suitable locations for large scale demand deployment in Northern Ireland.
We are ready and available to discuss how we can support our clients in Northern Ireland. Please reach out to our Country Manager, dearbhla.obrien@tneigroup.com, for a discussion on how we can support.
