The recent Future Energy Scenarios (FES) published by National Grid Electricity System Operator (NGESO) has reaffirmed its scenario framework to help support the transition towards the 80% carbon emission reduction target of 2050.
A new addition to the report is the sensitivity model, which coincides with the government’s proposed shift towards a net zero carbon emission energy network. Focusing on the trends of decarbonization and decentralization, the report identifies four key scenarios which can help achieve the current 80% reduction target. The 2050 target is evaluated for each scenario to determine whether or not the target can be achieved, as well as the rate at which the goal could be achieved. The evaluation is based on developments within the past year, including; policy support, consumer engagement, economic growth, technology development and energy efficiency, and how they have helped boost each scenario’s forecast outcomes.
The scenarios “‘Community Renewables’ and “‘Two Degrees’ have the capability to meet the 2050 reduction target. These scenarios focus on a more decentralized energy network where radial networks are used to power communities and provides a shift towards alternative heating techniques, primarily hydrogen.
The scenarios which fail to meet the 2050 target are “‘Consumer Evolution’ and “‘Steady Progression’. “‘Consumer Evolution’ revolves around public acceptance of new generation solutions as well as the electrification of the current transport network, whereas “‘Steady Progression’ is a centralized approach basing the progression towards the 80% reduction target at current expansion rates.
FES evaluates different parameters of the future energy network under each of the scenarios. The electrification of the transport system is identified as a key part of the future network evaluation. FES 2019 shows a projected increase in electric vehicle demand across all scenarios when compared to last year’s forecast.
The “‘Community Renewables’ scenario sees the largest increase in EV demand when compared to FES 2018 forecasts, increasing from 89TWh to ~96TWh. The significant increase is put down to almost all road vehicles in 2050 forecasted to be purely electric within the “‘Community Renewables’ scenario.
However, the maximum potential for the number of electrical vehicles has decreased from 38.5 million to 36 million when comparing the forecasted result from FES 2018.
FES 2019 sees a decrease in total electrical energy demand across the scenarios compared to FES 2018 with the exception of the “‘Two Degrees’ scenario, which forecasts a 13% increase compared to FES 2018. “‘Two Degrees’ scenario contains an increase in electricity demand due to an expected rise in the production of hydrogen to be used within the transport network. Over 1 million hydrogen or natural gas vehicles are forecasted to be on the roads by 2050 under the “‘Two Degrees’ scenario compared to only 243,000 forecasted in FES 2018.
Electricity storage capacity is forecasted to increase across the scenarios compared to FES 2018 figures, with the exception of the “‘Community Renewables’ scenario which sees a decrease of around 0.7GW. Interconnector import capacity forecasts remain the same for “‘Community Renewables’ with small increases in “‘Two Degrees’ and “‘Consumer Evolution’ and a decrease in “‘Steady Progression’. Across all four scenarios, the percentage of renewable generation supplying electrical energy demand has increased compared to FES 2018 with the largest increase coming for the “‘Two Degrees’ scenario.
As a whole, there are no significant deviations within the forecasted results of FES 2018 and FES 2019, with the exception of the “‘Two Degrees’ scenario. FES 2019 sees a shift towards hydrogen being a prominent factor in both the transition of the transportation network as well as an alternative heating source. Hence the “‘Two Degrees’ scenario shows a large increase in various parameters.
The addition of the net zero carbon emissions sensitivity analysis coincides with the recommendation provided by the recent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) net zero report. The CCC net zero carbon report encourages the expansion of decarbonization at a much faster rate which in turn is mirrored through the scenario framework provided in the FES 2019 report.
