TNEI is positive about South Africa’s updated Integrated Resource Plan

3 Sep 2018
TNEI Cape Town office - specialist energy consultancy

Following the release of the updated Integrated Resource Plan 2018, TNEI Africa is enthusiastic about the opportunities it entails for South Africa and our future and existing clients. Unfortunately, the short-term development opportunities do not look too favourable, for example, in the period up to 2030, no new generation would be required up to 2025, although this excludes the 27 signed REIPPPP projects as well as the Eskom build program with the last unit of Kusile PS to come online by 2022. 
The installed capacity and energy mix for scenarios tested for the period up to 2030 will not differ materially, mainly because of the decommissioning of around12GW of Eskom coal plants during this period. New coal would be added in 2023 and 2024 totalling 1GW from two IPP coal projects. New renewables will only be added in 2025 which includes solar PV, wind and gas/diesel. No new CSP or nuclear is planned in this period up to 2030. In 2030, 2,500MW of hydro power is expected to come online from the DRC being supplied to South Africa. 
The IRP shows that post 2030, 28GW of Eskom coal plants would be decommissioned by 2040 and 35GW by 2050. Coal will contribute less than 30% of the energy supplied by 2040 and less than 20% by 2050. The Koeberg Nuclear PS unit 1 is expected to be decommissioned in 2045 and the second unit by 2046. 
You can read more and make comments on the IRP here.

Key contact

Johan Smith, Senior Consultant

Johan Smith

Senior Consultant

Johan Smith is a senior consultant with 10 years’ experience and an M.Tech degree in Electrical Engineering. Johan has worked on research projects for the South African Utility, Eskom in the field of High Voltage Direct Current, which involved development, implementation and verification of two simulation models of the Cahora-Bassa Apollo HVDC scheme. He received advanced HVDC training in Canada from PSCAD as well as DIgSILENT in Germany. During his career, he developed system models for African countries (Namibia and Zimbabwe). One of the projects was a complete system expansion study including transmission system integration and upgrading studies. Johan’s key role in this project was to apply industrial grade software to develop system models, which represent the present electrical network as well as possible future expansions. Since 2012, he has been performing grid integration, compliance and dynamic studies for independent power producer renewable energy projects in both South Africa and internationally.